Table 26Transition probability for patients in AMU age group 16-44, NEWS group 1-4 and it is their first admitted location

Potential next locationProbability (a)Cumulative probability
GMW0.3610.361
Outlier0.0120.373
Rehab0.00020.374
ICU0.0030.377
HCU0.0070.384
Non-medical path0.0110.395
Care home0.00010.396
Usual res0.5790.974
NHS service0.0170.992
Other discharge0.0080.9996
Death0.00041.000
(a)

This data is from the analysis of data from the Queen Alexandra Hospital in Portsmouth - Appendix E. The proportion of the patients moving to Medical outlier was omitted here and those patients re-distributed to the GMW. This was so that medical outliers were only created when medical wards were at full capacity – see 41.4.5.

From: Chapter 41, Cost-effectiveness analyses

Cover of Emergency and acute medical care in over 16s: service delivery and organisation
Emergency and acute medical care in over 16s: service delivery and organisation.
NICE Guideline, No. 94.
National Guideline Centre (UK).
Copyright © NICE 2018.

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